For weeks, all eyes have been on the Strait of Hormuz. Are ships getting through? Will there be a total blockade or not? The situation remains unclear. Energy prices, however, paint a clearer picture. In Switzerland, heating oil prices hovered around 100 francs per 100 liters in February, surged to over 150 francs in early April, and have since settled around 130 francs toward the end of the month. While these fluctuations are already hitting consumers’ wallets, the Iran conflict has far more existential consequences in other parts of the world.

This is because the Strait of Hormuz is not only a bottleneck for the global oil market, but also for the availability of fertilizers. The Persian Gulf region is one of the world’s leading exporters of urea and phosphates – key building blocks for modern fertilizers. When passage through the strait is disrupted, global agriculture is directly affected, as a large share of fertilizer production depends on the region’s cheap natural gas, as reported by the Financial Times.

If this supply is cut off or transport costs rise significantly, global prices for nitrogen fertilizers soar. This has severe consequences for food production, particularly in poorer countries. The problem lies in the immediate dependence of crop yields on fertilizer use. If farmers in emerging economies can no longer afford nitrogen fertilizers, yields drop sharply – and prices for staple foods rise accordingly.

According to the United Nations, up to 45 million more people in poorer countries could face acute food insecurity by June. 'Food prices will definitely increase in the coming months, making it harder for many people worldwide to afford adequate and healthy diets,' said Matin Qaim, Director at the Center for Development Research at the University of Bonn, in an interview with 'Agrarzeitung'. The poorest populations in Africa and Asia will be hit hardest, as they already spend a large share of their income on food; hunger and malnutrition are likely to increase.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is sounding the same alarm. It warns that a prolonged crisis in the strait could lead to a global food catastrophe. While 2025 was already a crisis year, the current conflict is pushing the number of affected people to an estimated 318 million. For aid organizations such as the World Food Programme, this creates a double burden: congested ports, longer routes, and rising fuel and food prices mean that aid must be strictly prioritized, as available supplies are no longer sufficient for all. The organization is thus facing an almost impossible ethical dilemma, as logistical bottlenecks and global inflation drastically limit the reach of humanitarian efforts. In practice, this means making tough choices – summarized by the World Food Programme as follows:
'We have to take food from the hungry to give to the starving.'