Around one-third of the global trade in nitrogen-based fertilisers passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing blockade of the strait due to the war in Iran has been pushing fertiliser prices upward for months. What initially threatened poorer regions of the world is now increasingly affecting Europe as well.

If the strait remains blocked, lower harvests on the Northern Hemisphere are threatened as early as autumn, bringing shortages in animal feed and, consequently, more expensive meat and eggs, as Bayer CEO Bill Anderson recently warned in an interview.

The background: Modern arable crop yields depend directly on mineral fertilisers. If nitrogen fertilisers fail or become significantly more expensive, yields drop – and with them the availability of grain and animal feed.

The situation is therefore escalating. The EU found itself forced to respond to the looming shortages with its own fertiliser action plan. It is intended to relieve agricultural businesses in the short term, while at the same time strengthening domestic fertiliser production and reducing dependence on imports. As an EU Commission spokesperson explained, past wars and crises have shown that the price shock on the fertiliser market reaches grocery stores six to twelve months later. The coming months will therefore be tense or simply expensive.

And nitrogen is apparently just the beginning. As the agricultural journal Agrarzeitung warns, the next shortage could loom as early as 2027 – this time involving sulphur and phosphorus, two other fundamental building blocks of fertiliser. These bottlenecks are likely to preoccupy the industry for some time.

Strategic stockpiling pays off

And Switzerland? Fertiliser prices have risen here too. However, according to the Federal Office for Economic National Supply (FONES), there is currently no sign of a supply disruption in Switzerland. The reason is preparation: Switzerland maintains compulsory stockpiles of nitrogen fertilisers, which can be drawn upon if needed. While Europe’s farmers are waiting for emergency funds from Brussels, Switzerland has a buffer.

The lesson: Supply security is not a law of nature. It rests on resilient supply chains, domestic production, and pragmatic rather than ideological politics. A productive agricultural sector and a functioning upstream supply industry are strategic assets – not something to be regulated away. Compulsory stockpiles buy Switzerland time; the structural response is diversification and more efficient fertilisation. Anyone who wants food security must plan ahead. Switzerland has shown how it is done.